CCAG urges greater NDC ambition as new report outlines critical need to re-frame 1.5 temperature limits

●      The Climate Crisis Advisory Group’s latest report recommends the widening of climate targets to include GHG atmospheric levels, which are critical ‘real-time’ indicators of climate change.

●      Even at ‘just’ 1.07 degrees of global warming – a figure based on the 10-year global average – vulnerable communities and countries around the world, including Ghana, are experiencing severe impacts.

●      CCAG calls for governments to urgently commit to ambitious NDCs to ensure a safe pathway for humanity remains within reach.

●      Examining Ghana’s position in the global energy transition, CCAG member Dr Fatima Denton, calls for overdue loss and damage support from developed nations

Accra, Monday 23rd September: Long-term global temperature measurements are failing to capture the increasing rate of warming, masking the true extent and risk of unabated temperature rises that are already having devastating impacts around the world.

That’s according to CCAG’s latest report, which calls for greater accuracy in monitoring efforts to stay below the 1.5 degree target – an absolute planetary boundary, not an arbitrary limit – and sets out a pathway for nations to mitigate and limit the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

On this basis, the report stresses the need for much greater ambition on NDC targets to ensure they deliver the resources needed to achieve global Net Zero by 2050. In turn, these should align with CCAG’s 4R Planet Strategy, a comprehensive approach to climate change that it believes will deliver a safe and just future for humanity. 

This assessment is based on an examination of the unique challenges faced by Ghana, the United States, Brazil, and India in the context of the global energy transition and rapid climate change.

Balancing economic hardship and sustainable development in Ghana

Ghana is acutely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite producing just 1.6 tonnes of GHG emissions per person in 2022.^[1] Many Ghanaians depend on subsistence farming, but agricultural productivity has been badly affected by extreme weather and other impacts of the climate crisis. Once the world’s second-largest producer of cocoa, Ghana’s production of cocoa has suffered, with production falling below 60% of usual levels in 2023-2024.^[2]

Challenges across agriculture are further compounded by Ghana’s economic reliance on the production of oil and gas, with demand for African oil and gas falling due to the ongoing global energy transition towards renewables. The heavy dependence on these sectors not only makes Ghana vulnerable to global market fluctuations but complicates its path towards sustainable development.

Dr Fatima Denton, CCAG member and Director of the United Nations University – Institute for Natural Resources in Africa – commented: “In Ghana there is an ongoing disconnect between the need to improve Ghana’s economic prospects and the threats posed by the climate crisis, which remains under-represented in political discourse.

“Ghana’s policy remains to balance the expansion of fossil fuel production with investment in renewable energy. Whilst Ghana has already committed to an NDC, continued investment in oil production by wealthier nations means it is not realistic for Ghana to end its reliance on fossil fuels at present. Until such time that Ghana receives sufficient loss and damage support from developed nations, its oil and gas will continue to be traded in return for economic growth as part of a diversified energy mix.”

 A clear, actionable pathway to climate stability

Setting out a pathway to reverse the current climate trajectory, the report recommends the following priorities:

1. Advance global equity through finance, leadership and collaboration.

The report calls for wealthy nations like the US, whose development has been powered by fossil fuels, to acknowledge their moral debt and address power imbalances. This will entail loss and damage compensation, technology sharing and decisive global leadership.

2. Decouple well-being from fossil fuel consumption.

The energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources must be accelerated. Over-consumption, largely in the Global North, must be moderated, while developing countries, largely in the Global South, must be supported to improve and maintain economic well-being.

3. End fossil fuel subsidies and accelerate climate action

NDCs must show greatly enhanced ambition from every single nation if the safe pathway is to be achieved, with a focus on rapidly creating robust, sustainable policies at every level of human activity and achieving global Net Zero by 2050. This must entail a commitment to ending licences for fossil fuel activity and clear timelines for ending fossil fuel subsidies.    

4. Protect biodiversity and indigenous communities

Biodiversity is a critical part of our global climate response and central to ensuring we first limit and then reverse temperature rises. Equally, we must ensure the protection of indigenous communities, respecting their rights and knowledge, alongside their important role in safeguarding ecosystems. 

Commenting on the report Sir David King, chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group said:

“We should be in no doubt that the current trajectory of global temperature increases is hurtling humanity towards disaster. But as our latest report lays out, this outcome is not inevitable. A safe future for humanity is still within our grasp, but only if all nations take urgent action.

“Each further incremental increase in global temperatures will bring increasing devastation. A global consensus on climate action has so far proven near-impossible to achieve, but this should not prevent countries from stepping up their own efforts. Every nation must put everything they can towards their NDCs, to ensure the system is as ambitious and extensive as possible, while fairly addressing the needs of developing countries.”

Advancing global equity must become a priority

The report reaffirms the need for a multi-faceted approach to boosting global equity, and has highlighted the significance of technology sharing and loss and damage compensation as critical to strengthening the leadership of the global north.

This comes as the report’s assessment finds wealthier nations must address the sense of injustice that exists within the global south, by supporting ongoing economic development in nations such as Ghana. This highlights the need for developed economies to take greater responsibility in tackling climate change.

For more information, read CCAG’s report: Solving the Climate Conundrum: Piecing Together a Global Approach to Keeping 1.5 Alive,HERE

ENDS

CCAG’s 4R Planet strategy:

●      Reduction: Advocating for swift and significant reductions in emissions to mitigate further climate change.

●      Removal: Massive investment in carbon removal technology and nature-based solutions.

●      Repair: Research into safe, manageable ways to repair damaged climate systems.

●      Resilience: Comprehensive action to strengthen our capacity to deal with climate impacts and threats.

Notes to editors:

For media enquiries, please contact Conor Nugent: (+44)7855160161 ccag@firstlightgroup.io

About CCAG

CCAG is an independent group of experts which reflects a wide range of academic disciplines and indigenous knowledge, comprising 16 experts from 10 nations. It includes leading authorities in climate science, carbon emissions, energy, environment, and natural resources. Some of the members also participate in governmental advisory groups. Its function is complementary, not an alternative, to these other roles. It will look at in-depth policy and financial issues, including ones not currently on governmental agendas. All scientists have agreed to give up their time at no cost.

CCAG broadcasts are held monthly and published on YouTube. To keep up to date with the group, visit ccag.earth or follow us on Twitter, Instagram and Youtube.

●      Sir David King (Chair), Cambridge University – focus on alerting governments and institutions around the world to the dangers of the climate crisis and urgent need for climate repair

●      Alice Hill, Council on Foreign Relations – expertise in building resilience to catastrophic risks, in particular climate risk

●      Dr Arunabha Ghosh, The Council on Energy, Environment and Water – expert in public policy and climate change advisor to governments, industry, civil society and international organisations around the world

●       Mariana Mazzucato, University College London – expert on innovation-led inclusive and sustainable growth

●      Professor Lorraine Whitmarsh, University of Bath – particular interest in perceptions and behaviours in relation to climate change, energy and transport

●      Professor Nerilie Abram, Australian National University – research expertise covering climate change impacts, from tropical oceans to Antarctica

●      Professor Mark Maslin, University College London – particular expertise in understanding the Anthropocene and how it relates to the major challenges facing humanity in the 21st century

●      Professor Mercedes Bustamante, University of Brasilia – recognised for contributions to the ecological knowledge of threatened tropical ecosystems and their interactions with human-induced changes

●      Professor Qi Ye, Hong Kong University Science and Technology and Tsinghua University China – expert on China’s environmental policy with a focus on climate change, environment, energy, natural resources and urbanisation

●      Dr Klaus Lackner, Arizona State University – research interests include closing the carbon cycle by capturing carbon dioxide from the air, carbon sequestration, carbon foot-printing, innovative energy and energy and environmental policy

●      Professor Lavanya Rajamani, Oxford University – specialist in the field of international environmental and climate change law

●      Dr Fatima Denton, United Nations University – particular expertise in natural resource management, especially in regards to Africa

●      Christophe McGlade, International Energy Agency – energy specialist, particularly in oil and gas analysis

●       Dr Robert W. Corell, US Global Environment Technology Foundation – particular interest in global and regional climate change and the link between science and public policy

●      Gustavo Luedemann, Institute of Applied Economic Research – expert on climate action financing, climate-biodiversity linkages, climate justice and emissions pricing.

●      Dr Guido Schmidt-Traub, Systemiq – economist and expert in sustainable development, impact investment and land use systems

^[1] Our World in Data (2022) ‘Per capita greenhouse gas emissions’ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/

per-capita-ghg-emissions?tab=chart&time=2011..latest&country=BRA~IND~USA~GHA

^[2] African Initiative, Economics (2024) ‘Ghana’s cocoa production falls to half of average’ https://

afrinz.ru/en/2024/07/proizvodstvo-kakao-v-gane-upalo-vdvoe-nizhe-srednego/; Reuters, Adombila

(2024) ‘Ghana’s cocoa farmers expect yield rebound in 2024/2025 crop season’ https://www.

reuters.com/markets/commodities/ghanas-cocoa-farmers-expect-yield-rebound-20242025-crop-

season-2024-07-18/.